Poker can be a bitch sometimes, you make the right plays, the right reads, the right bets and the right calls, and it can all be for nothing. One man comes out looking like a genius and the other like a bumbling fool. These scenarios happen everyday in the poker room and can bring a man down or build him up. The other players sitting at the table are the judges proclaiming genius or retardation to the players in the hand. But the ultimate judge is the bankroll over time.
You have been sitting at the table playing your usual game making solid moves and solid reads. Laying down marginal hands when you know you are beat and re-raising when you think you are ahead. And then a defining moment happens, one that will change the makeup of the table and the psychology and play of others for the short term. You are dealt Qc-Kc under the gun, not a stellar hand but a playable one and at this loose aggressive table it is probably the best hand. You raise from 50 cents to what is about standard, $2.50. At a table of 6 you get 5 callers which does not surprise you in the least as everyone here loves to see the flop and just have a good time playing asshat hands. The Flop comes out Qd-10s-9s, this is a decent flop for you yet scary at the same time. The player in the Small Blind fires out $8 the BB folds and you sit there thinking about all the previous play that this guy has done. You quickly decide to re-raise to $22 knowing that the tight player to your left will fold. And now all you have to worry about is 2 players the man sitting on the button that is capable of great reads and great plays and the Small blind that originally raised.
Action is on the Button and to your surprise the Button re-raises you. He adds an astonishing $40 to the $22 for a total of $62. Now you are contemplating life and where this hand went wrong, your attention turns to the SB who wisely decides to vacate the pot.
And you go into the tank…..
What the hell is this guy doing? What can he possibly have? The nuts are K-J, if he has this why make such a huge raise? It doesn't make sense to try and scare people out of the pot if you flopped the nuts. Is he afraid of the flush draw? Does he have two pair? Like 9-10? Does he have Q-J and is making a move because he has top pair and the open ended straight? You convince yourself that the player in question is more than capable of making a semi-bluff against an opponent that he knows has the ability to lay down good hands, and that this is one of those times. And so you think for a moment later on what types of cards you are looking for on the turn. You plan out your strategy for the rest of the hand. You have top pair and is the player has 2 pair you are looking for a K or Q or J to give you a straight. You decide that he might be afraid of the flush draw thus is a spade comes out you are going to bet first to hopefully trigger a fold from the player, but you also realize with as much money that is going in the pot right now that you are going to commit yourself by calling the flop.
Thus the play is on. You are going to try and pull the stop and go. The stop and go is calling the raise and then firing out regardless of the card on the next street. The purpose is to confuse your opponent and or tricking him into thinking that you hit your card/cards, this play really only works when you think that your opponent is bluffing himself or he does not have that strong of a hand. You are playing a player, don't do anything to fast or to slow. You make the call and watch him. He shows little emotion but intensely watches for what card is to come next, you think that he is showing concern that you actually called his re-raise and that confirms what you must do next.
The dealer throws out the best and worst possible card at the same time. The Jack of spades.
This little bastard gave you the straight to the king but it made a flush possible also. Arggghhh but remember your game plan, you were going to bet/bluff if a spade came out, you just happen to catch a straight with it. You had also decided that your opponent was to smart for an over bet and that he was more likely to fold to a repeat bet of $60. So you make your move.
And he instantly goes all in.
Now you are caught with your pants down and about $40 left in front of you. You have the straight and you committed yourself to the pot and this was really all part of the possibilities that you thought about on the flop. And so sticking to the plan you call. You really are not expecting the flush but with the instant all in it has you wondering.
Your opponent asks: "Do you got the flush?"
You slightly shake your head and say "no."
At that point you know that you are either splitting the pot or taking it down with the straight.
He asks another question "do you have the king?"
The way he asks lets you know that he doesn't…you confirm that you do by flipping your cards over. At that point his questioning turns to how can you make that call? He isn't referring to the all in bet on the turn but the $40 re-raise on the flop. You explain your position and read that it was highly possible that he was bluffing and or that he had Q-J, but this does not seem to quell the rebellion that is taking over the table. The dealer (that is playing) says that he would have made that fold, the player to your left agrees, and the jury is out with a guilty verdict of "Donkey". You are bewildered by this, in your mind you made a great call, you trusted your gut and went with it.
Another player chimes in with man that is a massive stack of chips, but you think silently that this hand was not about the chips or money that it was about making the move on a guy that was making a move on you, and you tell yourself that your play was an amazing call…. But you can't quite convince yourself of that.
You leave the game about an hour later with this hand still on your mind and you go home sit at your pc and bust out the odds charts and calculators. You are on a quest to justify your call with math. Can it be done? Or will you discover the donkey inside.
First let's put all the cards on the table that we know. You had Q-K of clubs and your opponent had Q-8 off the Q was a spade and the 8 was a club. The flop was Qd-10s-9s the turn was Js and the river was 2h. So pre-flop you had him drawing to an 8 and thus had a 75% of winning and around a 2% chance of a tie. Pre-flop really doesn't matter in this hand as it is obvious that he is dominated and really should not have entered the raised pot. The flop comes out, and you increase your lead to around 80% and the chance for a tie rises also to 4%. The problem with looking at it this way is that in the heat of battle you don't know that you are ahead. So let's plug in what you think he might have had at the time. If he had Qh-Jh you still have him 69% to 26%, thus still not a donkey call. What if he has two pair? This is what you thought the worst case scenario at the time was. Well then He has you beat. He has you 62 to 38%, this in my mind is still close to a coin flip. You at no point put him on a set, and if he had one he has you crushed leaving you only a 15% chance of survival. And lastly if he actually had the hand he was trying to represent the elusive K-J…well you have a 2.5% chance of winning and a 13% chance of a tie.
So now you are no more certain your play was great or that it was a donkey call. And maybe that is how it has to be. It was just one of those situations where someone is going to walk away a loser and someone a winner. Poker is gambling and making decisions based on limited information. Trying to make bets on that information and trying to outplay your opponent all at the same time is what this game is all about. You resign yourself to thinking that this is just one of those hands that even though you made the right move you really dodged a bullet and lucked out, and in the back of your mind you tell yourself you would do it all over again cause you are a poker player.
