You've limped in with Ah6h suited in a No-Limit Texas Hold'em game. The flop is Jh7h3c. An early position player bets and your next to act. You're thinking "man I am not getting the correct odds to call", so you fold only to see a heart come on the turn. Did you do the right thing? Well the turn card indicates that you didn't. So how do you play draws? There are several key principals in No-Limit Texas Hold'em poker that you need to understand while playing draws.
First, you must be able to calculate and understand your odds. There are two types of odds to be concerned about, Pot Odds and Implied Odds. Pot Odds are the odds the pot is giving you to make a call without future contributions to the pot. Implied Odds take into consideration possible future contributions your opponents will make towards the pot.
There are some other key concepts surrounding your own contributions to the pot that you need to aware of which factor into your decision making on draws. Pot Share is your percentage in contribution to the pot. For example, if there are 3 people in the pot then your pot share is 33%. Pot Equity is another term you will need to become familiar with. Pot equity is your expected value from the pot. For example if you have a 33% chance to win the pot which contains $100, your pot equity is $33. Finally you need to understand fold equity. Fold equity is the value that you get when you make a bet and the other player(s) will fold.
Now that we understand some basic principles of poker, let's talk about draws. I classify draws into 4 main categories: Weak, Normal, Strong and Monster. Weak draws are draws that have 4 outs or less, or even when you make your draw someone else still has a hand that beats you. Typical weak draws are gutshot straight draws, flush draws that are not the nut flush, or the low end of straight draws (more commonly known as a "sucker straight" when they hit, and for good reason). Weak draws are by far the easiest to play, simply put you don't. You will complete weak draws at best 16% of the time.
Normal draws are draws that have at least 8 outs. These are typically open ended straight or double gutshot straight draws and flush draws. These draws are fairly common; you will complete these draws about a 33% of the time. However, these draws are fairly easy to detect on the board, because of this implied odds will be lower on these draws. Strong draws are draws with at least 10 outs. These draws typically consist of a normal draw, open ended straight or flush draws but also contain 1 over card to the board or one of your hole cards have paired the board. Here you will complete this draw 40% to 50% of the time.
Monster draws are draws with 14 or more outs. These draws are typically open ended straight and flush draws, open ended straight draws with two over cards, flush draws with two over cards. You will complete this draw 56% or more depending on the number of outs you have.
So how do you play these draws? Good Question!
Not much can really be said about weak draws, play them by the numbers, if you have the odds you can call. I personally try and avoid these types of hands because even if you hit your draw you may still lose. Always attempt to play small pots with these hands.
Normal draws allow you a little more freedom. You can play them strictly by the numbers or you can make some moves with them. Let's look at the following example. You have Kd Td in late position and limp in to see the flop. There is one other limper, the SB folds and the BB checks There is currently 3.5BB in the pot. The flop is Ad, 7d, 4s. The BB bets 1BB and the limper calls so the pot contains 5.5 BB. Let's also assume one of the bettors has an Ace so that if you pair your hole cards it will be no good. You need 3 to 1 pot odds to call. The pot is actually giving you 5.5 to 1 so you can call here, but is it the correct call?
Let's examine a few other things I previously mentioned. Your pot equity is 35%, or roughly 2 BB. Your pot share is 33%. Your implied odds are non existent because with three people calling the bet it is probable that one has the flush draw. This means, if you make your draw on the turn, you will not get any future contributions. Finally you need to calculate the fold equity of each player. In such a small pot your fold equity could be quite good depending on the size of the bet. Since your pot equity is roughly equal to your pot share you should just call. If you miss on the turn you must reevaluate and decide what the best course of action is.
Strong draws allow for much more creativity. You can play them by the numbers, but because of the strength of your draw you have the ability to make a lot more moves with these draws. Let's use the same example except this time you have Ad Td and the flop is Kd 7d 4s. On this draw you have 9 outs for the flush and 3 outs for each Ace left in the deck. You also have a back door straight draw; which means you need two cards to complete the straight. You could count the backdoor straight as an extra out at this point raising your number of outs to 13. You have 12 to13 outs or a 48% - 52% chance to win this pot. So what should you do? Well since your pot equity is 48% to 52% or 2.75 BB which is much larger than your pot share 33%, you should raise. Against a lone opponent you might consider just a call because your pot share is closer to your pot equity.
In the case of a monster draw, the outcome will be the same. Let's say you have Ad Kd and the flop was Td 7d 4s. Here you have 15 outs 9 for the flush draw plus 3 for each A and 3 more for each K; you also have the backdoor straight for an additional out. So you're looking at a 60%- 64% chance to win this pot. With a pot share of 33% you should bet. Against a lone opponent you should also bet.
This all seems pretty straight forward, so where's the creativity? That all depends on position and the players you are playing against. So let's examine an early position play with a draw. If I have a normal draw and a tight opponent(s) I will lead out with a bet 50% of the time. The reason I bet out is 66% of the time I am going to miss the flop, but if I bet out I will win about 33% of the time because my opponent(s) will fold. I will also check raise this opponent because the majority of times I use this move he will fold. So now I have increased my winning percentage for a normal draw from 33% to over 50%.
Against a loose player I will check this bet because I know he will call, but 33% of the time I will check raise this loose player. I will check raise this player not to win the pot because I know he will call the check raise but to keep him from betting the turn in fear that I will check raise him again. Furthermore, since the turn bet is typically a larger bet then the flop bet based on the pot size, a check raise on the flop will increase the percentage of me seeing the river card for a reduced price.
With strong draws I bet. If I am up against one opponent; it is a coin flip on who will win and by betting I gain an additional way to win the pot when my opponent folds. I will also call a reasonable bet with a strong draw. If someone moves all-in I will usually lay this down because the edge I am getting is not that great and there are no implied odds to hitting this draw, after all he is all-in. I will use the same check raising system to attempt to get a free river card.
With monster draws, I bet and reraise depending on my opponent type. Against a tight player I am always more careful. I am more willing to call an all-in bet here depending on the size of the bet in relation to the pot. If I out chip my opponent or do not have many chips left I will call all-in or move all-in. Monster draws are where you can beak your opponents, they will commit lots of chips and be an underdog to win the pot.
The other main reason why I advocate betting your draws is it helps hide the fact you're on a draw. So when you hit your draw you have more options available to you. I can't tell you how many times I was on the nut flush draw and made it on the turn or river only to check it. By checking the flush it gives your opponents the opportunity to bluff the pot when they are drawing dead. When you hit your flush on the river and it's been checked to you, you need to figure out how much your opponent would be willing to call. Always and I mean always bet for value on the river with a made hand.
Well that's draws for now. I could go on and on about them but I will leave the rest for you to figure out. If you have any comments or would like to discuss anything you have read please contact me at vanman@thepokeramateur.com.
