The Bad Beat Symposium
I've been thinking about this for a while now, and we all know a few things about poker.
#1 It's luck based on some level, particularly in hold 'em. In HE there is a big sign that says "Gamblers welcome here!"
#2 Skill can negate some but not all of this luck.
#3 You won't make it unless you have the bankroll to surive a few beats.
#4 You are not that big a dog, really. Unless you are really that big of a dog.
So with those things in mind, I want to start a discussion (hopefully) about the "bad beat" and the suckout. I've been thinking about it, and I think that a good portion of the problem lies in the fact that people push too hard with cards that don't really justify the push (or maybe they do...).
So I want everyone's opinion of what a suckout is, and I will offer mine first. First and foremost I don't think a suckout constitues ANY kind of race situation. I don't care what fucking Skansky says if you have a big pair and AK calls you in a tournament or cash game and spikes a card, big fucking deal. I think it's bad on we as the experienced players to push our edges like that (aginst weaker players). But the interesting part to me, is that hold em is made of a lot of these edges where you will have top pair and the other guy will have a flush draw with low cards. Post flop he still has two cards to come out of 8-9 (depending on your hand).
We will assume that you both just started and each have $200 in a cash game.
Example, you have A:spade: K:diamond: and raise to $7 from UTG.
Your opponent in on the button with 8:heart: 7:heart: he is your only caller.
$17 in the pot
Flop comes: A:club: 9:heart: 3:heart:
You have top pair big kicker, there is no straight draw, but there is a flush draw. You bet $12 just shy of 3/4 of the pot. And he calls. You are 2/1 to win at this point.
Pot is now: $41
Turn is: 7:spade:
Now you are looking at a card that you think can't help him because this guy isn't they type to call 9/7o through 2 bets, so there is a chance he has a 7, but it's more likely that he has a flush draw. So now he has the 9 hearts, the two sevens the two eights to make it. His odds are no worse than they were before, but he is still obviously behind.
You escalate the bet to $25 making the pot $66 and he has to call in $25 to see if his outs are good. So he calls you. Here is the thing. At this point the hand is over. This call or fold is the determining decision and while people say it's an "incorrect call" based on the Skylanskyite Equasions of he's the smartest guy ever. The only way this guy is going to win the pot is to call in this $25. Maybe he hits and maybe he dont's...but it' doesn't matter.
Now heres the killer for me, let's assume he hits. The pot is $91 dollars, so you (seeing the flush) check. He bets out a modest sum in the middle of $40. What are you going to do? He's giving you 2-1 on your money, and if it's the K:heart: on the river, you know he made his flush, so will you make a crying call here? Then people are going to start the "education process" to enlighted said donkey.
"How the fuck did you call $12 into a $25 dollar pot? You wern't getting the odds! Don't you read Skylansky?! Don't you fucking know that I was ahead and you should have folded to me? My god, this is why I am not a pro, because fucking DONKEYS call suited connectors for a 3x raise in position!" (So what if you were slightly better than a coiflip preflop and only barely improved through the turn 1.5-1 preflop to 2-1 preflop).
You were ahead! Fucking donkeys!
Ready? NOT A BAD BEAT. NOT A BAD BEAT EVEN IF YOU GO ALL IN ON THE FLOP. NOT A BAD BEAT IF YOU GO IN PREFLOP. It is a beat, but not a bad one.
So, that's my start, I hope someone will have this dicussion with me. Pushing edges like this when you are less than a 2-1 favorite is dumb in a cash game. But maybe I am wrong, mathematically it makes sense, but poker on some level is nonsensical, and maybe we could improve by being a little nonsensical ourselves.
1-1 is nothing other than what it is, a coinflip and not a beat at all
2-1 is a beat, not bad, just a beat
3-1 to 4-1 a tough beat
4-1 is a bad beat
9-1 or higher is a horrible beat |
