How much do you trust your reads?
I got involved with a hand against Glenn (Shawn's father in law) last night that I made what I consider a very solid laydown, but it got me thinking how much should you trust your reads versus the cards?
Situation: I think the blinds were 75/150 at the time, and Glenn from EP made it 600 to go. Nobody else came into the pot, and I was in LP and made what I consider a loose call with K/J. I just wanted to see a flop and work from there. Two go to the flop.
Pot: 1425
Flop: 10/10/A
I watched Glenn as the flop was turned over, and as he thought about what to do and I sensed that he didn't like that flop. He bet out 1000 and I sat there a bit, and then reraised to 2500. He took awhile to call and made a comment of "I hate to lay these down," which tells me he had a big pair. While he was thinking I went through possible hands.
A/K - nope, because he would have said "I hate to lay THIS down." A HUGE word is the use of these/this in situations. THESE generally means a pair, and THIS generally means a non-made hand from my experiences.
So I think he has a big pair:
10/10 - Would have not even bet in the first place
J/J - not really that hard to lay down
A/A - probably doesn't bet the flop, and if he had AA he was doing the best acting job I have ever seen
K/K & Q/Q - Ok so I almost KNOW he has one of these. I would have bet my tournament life on it that this is what he was holding. My gut told me QQ for some reason, but in thinking back at this time there really was no indicator to differentiate between KK or QQ (except that I had a K in my hand, which made KK less likely). Just my feeling. He calls.
Turn: Q
Board: A/10/10Q
When the Queen hit he made a big sigh - like he didn't like seeing it. This to me was a dead giveaway. In all honestly if he didn't have QQ he could almost care less about the Q hitting, because I knew he thought I had an Ace so why would the Q help? I KNEW (at least as much as I can without seeing his cards) that he had QQ in his hand. He has a boat, and I have a straight.
He bet out $1000 and I made a quick fold. He showed QQ so I felt good about my read, but how much do you guys trust your reads? It is one thing to read them as having a piece of the board, but to me another to read that your straight it no good. As I said I felt good about it, and seeing his QQ helped me, but that could have been a colossal mistake if he was holding A/Q or something like that.
Do you ever go against your reads due to the cards or do you guys always trust your reads? |
