Well, I printed that article off before leaving work so I could read it on the way to the car last night. I'm a tax consultant (accountant), so number manipulation comes pretty natural to me. (haha) I followed the entire article. However, something really bothered me that was mentioned serveral times.
[i:da10376c52]" . . in essence, you are doing the calculations as if you were the only person at the table," [/i:da10376c52]
The last live poker I played was at Glenn's house last Monday. I wasn't in the running for points or anything, but I wanted to win some money (Don't we all). I got low on chips by the time each table had 7 players, so pretty early for me. Well, I decided to play as tight as possible. Of course, I joked about this strategy by saying, "I'm going to play super conservative from now on. Like you, Tom." Well, Tom noticed how tight I played the rest of the way and I was the last one out of the money. Looking back, if I were calculating odds in my head and trying to play the tightest game possible, I wouldn't have liked knowing in the back of my mind I was calculating as if I was playing by myself. So, I thought about it while I drove home and decided that I was going to modify the calculations to be a bit more conservative.
If I have 9 outs after the flop. That would be 9 out of 47 cards (52 in deck - 2 hold cards -3 cards from the flop). That is 19% chance to hit an out card. However, if I want to play more conservative, I would add the cards from other hands to the deck total. So playing the same hand against 4 people, that would be 9 out of 53 (52 in deck - 2 hold cards - 3 Flop cards + 6 cards hold cards of other players). This is 17% chance. That is when it hit me. :shock:
2% CHANGE ON 9 OUT CARDS WOULDN'T CHANGE MY MIND ONE WAY OR THE OTHER!!! :evil:
I guess the real stategy would be to try decide, by how your opponents plays their hand, if your out cards are in their hands.
Any comments/suggestions? (other than "shut up, and deal")
