Re: Ok experts, tell me what I did wrong on THIS hand.

[quote:ca76d094dc="Turd Ferguson"][Mar 16 12:44:43] : Seat 1 : damoventy has $98.50
[Mar 16 12:44:43] : Seat 2 : eyal1981 has $26.06
[Mar 16 12:44:43] : Seat 3 : abergavenny has $46.48
[Mar 16 12:44:43] : Seat 4 : Tom Cat59 has $67.97
[Mar 16 12:44:43] : Seat 5 : thedok has $7.20
[Mar 16 12:44:43] : Seat 6 : ChazAldi has $49.37
[Mar 16 12:44:43] : Seat 7 : Bnklayden has $88.15
[Mar 16 12:44:43] : Seat 8 : Godlike2 has $141.53
[Mar 16 12:44:43] : Seat 9 : GAPMAN has $11.25
[Mar 16 12:44:45] : Seat 6 : ChazAldi has Jd Qd
[Mar 16 12:44:47] : abergavenny folded.
[Mar 16 12:44:50] : Tom Cat59 called $0.50
[Mar 16 12:44:55] : thedok called $0.50 and raised $2
[Mar 16 12:44:32] : ChazAldi called $2.50
[Mar 16 12:44:32] : Bnklayden folded.
[Mar 16 12:44:42] : Godlike2 folded.
[Mar 16 12:44:48] : GAPMAN called $2.50
[Mar 16 12:44:48] : damoventy folded.
[Mar 16 12:44:49] : eyal1981 folded.
[Mar 16 12:44:49] : Tom Cat59 called $2
[Mar 16 12:44:50] : Dealing flop.
[Mar 16 12:44:50] : Board cards [8h Ad 7d]
[/quote:ca76d094dc]
At this point there is $10 in the pot. You have a 30% chance of making 2nd nuts (assuming random cards in their hands)

[quote:ca76d094dc="Turd Ferguson"][Mar 16 12:44:55] : Tom Cat59 checked.
[Mar 16 12:44:59] : thedok checked.
[Mar 16 12:45:02] : ChazAldi checked.
[Mar 16 12:45:09] : GAPMAN bet $2
[Mar 16 12:45:11] : Tom Cat59 called $2
[Mar 16 12:45:16] : thedok called $2 and raised $2.70 and is All-in
[/quote:ca76d094dc]
At this point there is $18 in the pot, you need to call $5 to win $18. This is good odds for a call, but in this case you don't know if someone after you is going to push, re-raise. [b:ca76d094dc]Those are unknowns which affect your odds.[/b:ca76d094dc]

GAPMAN has $5.75 left in front of him. If he pushes no big deal.
TomCat is the one to worry about. He still has $63.47 in front of him. If he pushes, your odds are wrecked.

[quote:ca76d094dc="Turd Ferguson"][Mar 16 12:45:17] : ChazAldi called $4.70
[Mar 16 12:45:22] : GAPMAN called $2.70 and raised $4.05 and is All-in
[Mar 16 12:45:24] : Tom Cat59 folded.
[/quote:ca76d094dc]
Now there is only one decision.
If you think your flush is good (I would) You need to pay $4 for a 30% chance to win $25.
[quote:ca76d094dc="Turd Ferguson"][Mar 16 12:45:25] : ChazAldi called $4.05
[Mar 16 12:45:26] : Showdown!
[Mar 16 12:45:27] : Seat 5 : thedok has As 7s
[Mar 16 12:45:27] : Seat 6 : ChazAldi has Jd Qd
[Mar 16 12:45:27] : Seat 9 : GAPMAN has Ah 8c
[/quote:ca76d094dc]
Whew, none of them are playing the K high flush... but your odds are a little different now.

You used to have 9 diamond outs, now you only have 8 because the 8d would boat up GAPMAN. Still a good call.